Shall we stop taking silly risks, and go back to being sensible and boring again?
If you’re at all interested in the history of the last hundred years, you’ll be familiar with the cases where governments have done bizarre and stupid things in a crisis, usually resulting in their own downfall. From the disastrous German offensive of 1918, to the mad idea of the Georgian government to start a war with Russia last year, via—oh, I don’t know—the calamitous Argentine invasion of the Falkands/Malvinas 25 years ago, modern history is full of madcap endeavors which always seem destined to fail. What on earth, ask historians despairingly, can they possibly have thought they were doing?
The classic case is probably the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, where historians still cudgel their brains trying to understand why the Japanese could possibly have thought they could get away with attacking a country which was the largest industrial power on earth, with twice their population.
Handling risk—usually very badly
Those of you not especially interested in military history will be relieved to hear this article is about human psychology; in particular, the inability of humans to understand and process risk.
In all of the cases cited, leaders took insane risks in the hope of achieving a smashing, overwhelming success: the end of World War I on German terms, the restoration of national territory seized by the British, and so on. For the Japanese, with a week’s supply of petrol left in the country, the choice was a humiliating withdrawal from China (think an oil embargo to force the US to withdraw from Afghanistan) or a very risky attack which promised, if successful, control of as much oil as they could want and strategic mastery of large parts of Asia.
Roll the dice . . .
You can see where this is going. Human beings are basically lousy at understanding and managing risk. That’s why it can be argued that every sensible organization should try to remove risk from its day-to-day operations as far as it can—because people can’t handle it properly.
Why people make such a mess of risk
Studies have shown that we assess risk based mainly on what we hope to gain, not what we fear to lose. People go to casinos because of the small chance of becoming a millionaire, not because of the very large chance of losing all their money.
It’s no different with the fate of nations. War games in 1918 and 1941 showed that there was a large probability of failure. They also showed there was a very small chance of a smashing success. As for modern financial risk-management techniques, we had better pass over those in silence, out of respect for the dead.
Part of the problem is cultural. This year in Britain, people are celebrating (or in some cases not celebrating) the thirtieth anniversary of Margaret Thatcher becoming prime minister. Thatcher helped publicize the idea that uncontrolled risk-taking was brave and worthy; when in most cases, in fact, it’s either stupid or naïve. Businessmen who took insane risks were given the kind of honors previously reserved for polar explorers and war heroes.
More recently, the willingness to take risks with other peoples’ money was seen as worthy of high salaries and fat bonuses. (I sometimes think that “risk-taking entrepreneur” is a fancy way of saying “greedy idiot”, but I may be overly cynical.) There’s always risk in life, and many successful enterprises involve a degree of uncertainty , but sensible human beings, and sensible organizations, manage to keep it to a minimum.
A new attitude to risk
In practice, the most successful organizations, companies and economies don’t take unnecessary risks. They innovate cautiously, learning from their mistakes and seeking to do better each time. When Toyota developed the Lexus brand, they didn’t risk untold trillions of Yen on someone’s bright idea. They sent a team to California for six months to live among their target market and find out what people wanted and liked. Then they designed and built a car on that basis.
We need to re-think the culture of risk-taking. In today’s bureaucratized and corporate world, individuals rarely suffer any major damage if the risks they take lead to disaster. Heads they win, tails we lose. Risk is part of human life and is an element of taking decisions in any organization. But it needs to be got back into proportion, and minimized as far as we can. We should stop praising and rewarding people who lose all our money at the roulette table.
Technorati Tags: risk, uncertainty, decision making, leadership


Even our recessions come faster and threaten to hit harder than anything we have seen to date!
Bay Jordan is the founder of of
Leaders and senior executives are rubbish at assessing risk. The financial crisis and economic meltdown prove it. Even top bankers, whose whole job is surely most about risk, got it so badly wrong that they not only killed the goose that was laying the golden eggs to satisfy their greed, they came perilously close to cooking everyone else’s goose as well.
If you look at management and self-help sites on the web, procrastination is amongst the commonest topics. Either all the solutions suggested are ineffective, or it is one of life’s most intractable problems. I suspect neither of these is correct. Most of the answers given have something going for them. The reason they often don’t work is they address the symptoms, not the causes.
There seems to be no end to the number of situations where organizations claim to want something, then act in ways that make it clear they don’t. This thought came to me again as I was musing about some more management basics.
A book by Charles Jacobs
Are organizational communications really as bad as they are made out to be? Do we need all the books, courses, articles and blogs on the subject? At one level, the answer has to be ‘yes’. Organizations are full of managers who confuse, lie to and manipulate their subordinates, executives who never listen to anyone and employees who hoard information and use every means possible to cover up their mistakes. There are also lots of honest, well-meaning people get caught up in misunderstandings, muddled intentions, incorrect assumptions and mixed messages.
I’m beginning to feel about motivation as I do about communication. Why are there so many books and articles about it? If one or two of them contained all you needed to do it well, the others would be unnecessary. It’s more likely that motivation has been hyped, like communication, because it’s a vague topic with broadly positive connotations—an ideal area for offerings from consultants, authors, publishers, and bloggers.
I thought it would be a good idea to review some of the basics of management—topics that we take for granted because they are so familiar to us, or because we assume the last word on them has been spoken and there is nothing more to be said. Motivation is on my list, as is communication, but I am going to start with the topic of working relationships between bosses and their subordinates.
Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, whose mild criticism of the economic policies of George Bush earned him such vitriolic treatment a few years ago, was quoted recently as worrying that economics as a discipline is going backwards—and that economists, as a profession, understood less about the economy than they had a generation before. I think he’s right, and I think that other areas, especially management, have the same problem. Yet I find that a cause for optimism in the slightly longer term. Let me try to explain why.


