Managing risk is supposed to be a key aspect of leadership. Why are most so poor at doing it?
Leaders and senior executives are rubbish at assessing risk. The financial crisis and economic meltdown prove it. Even top bankers, whose whole job is surely most about risk, got it so badly wrong that they not only killed the goose that was laying the golden eggs to satisfy their greed, they came perilously close to cooking everyone else’s goose as well.
Of course, leaders don’t accept how bad they are at understanding the risks they undertake. If they did, they might well be able to do something about it. Instead they do what all macho managers do to avoid admitting a weakness—they resort to mindless bravado.
This only makes matters worse. Instead of slowing down, or shying away from risks they don’t understand, they plunge ahead to show what tough guys they are. Then, when it all comes crashing down around their heads, they indulge in the other age-old custom of all bullies and egotists—blaming someone else.
You have to accept that human beings in general have a poor ability to estimate risk accurately—especially if they do it based on emotions, as most do—but that’s not an adequate excuse. Leaders are paid to manage risk. It’s one of the things they claim to be able to do better than the average Joe. If they cannot do better than anyone else, why pay them so much?
Why leaders don’t grasp risk properly
These are some of the commonest reasons why leaders get it wrong when it comes to understanding the risks that they are taking:
- They don’t grasp the laws of probability. Rather than take the time and trouble to delve into what it is, admittedly, an arcane discipline, they rely on mythology and rules of thumb. Since, however, no macho manager ever admits to not knowing anything, they either ignore all the statistics are telling them or ‘interpret’ them to match their own biases. Fire, it is said, is a good servant but a bad master. That’s even more true of statistics.
- They make decisions emotionally. How you feel about something has nothing to do with the actual likelihood that it will happen. This is the mistake gamblers make. Winning makes them feel good, so they wager more next time. Losing makes them feel angry, so they wager more and ‘double up’ to get their money back. Few stop to work out the exact possibilities of winning and losing.
- They let their egos rule. Many mergers and acquisitions come about, not from business logic, but to feed the ego of the CEO. That’s probably why 70% or so fail. Betting big on a merger makes those at the top feel important, whether or not the decision makes any sense from a business point of view. There will always be bankers and consultants eager to prove it does. Those guys make so much money from feeding the grandiosity of CEOs they can always justify anything that produces fees for them.
- They don’t understand the figures and so give too much respect to experts. The phrase ‘scientific management’ has become the curse of our time. No matter how crazy the idea, it can nearly always be sold to a boardroom full of professional leaders, provided it is wrapped up in scientific jargon and supported by sufficient tables of data. Few around the boardroom table understand any of it. They decide on whether or not they like the expert and find the presentation sufficiently entertaining. (Privately, I suspect they judge the strength of the evidence by weight. The heavier the report, the more trust they put in it.)
- They treat anecdotes as evidence. You have to put much of the blame for this failing on the media. We have become so used to news reports filled with ‘human interest stories’ instead of facts or logical argument, many people have lost the ability to see a difference between them. Management books use anecdotes, trotted out one after another, to support what the author is claiming. Stories are much more entertaining than logic or data, and a good deal of management writing today has long ago crossed the border between instruction and entertainment. Much of it should be re-shelved under ‘comic books’.
Even when leaders do try to grapple with the evidence, they still get it wrong.
The human mind, as I said, is poor at understanding probability. There are three patterns of thought which are especially effective at leading us into incorrect decisions:
- ‘The proximity effect’ bedevils our understanding of cause and effect. When two things occur closely together, in time or distance, we have a tendency to assume the one caused the other. As a result, people misunderstand what is going on and apply their efforts to dealing with things which are more or less irrelevant to what they want to achieve.
- ‘The recency effect’ describes the way that recent events appear larger and more important to us than those which happened some time ago. People who have just taken a risk and succeeded are more likely to take another one. Those who fail will hang back, even if they have an excellent record of success in the past. (This effect , by the way, explains why the small error you made yesterday erases from your boss’s mind all the good things you’ve done in the previous twelve months.)
- ‘The familiarity effect’ makes us underestimate the risks associated with something we know, and overestimate those associated with something unfamiliar. It explains why doing what we have always done feels less of a risk than change—even if it’s obvious that what we have done in the past won’t work and new ideas are necessary.
The mythology of conventional management is that a combination of statistical analysis, past experience and the pragmatic application of a handful of management models renders most business risks negligible. The reality is that conventional management’s obsession with speed, substitution of action for thought, tendency to confront uncertainty with bravado, emotional bias, and confusion of egotism with leadership, has made dealing with risk into a quagmire which has already swallowed up billions upon billions of dollars.
Ordinary humans are poor at assessing risk and usually accept it. Managers are supposed to be professionals at risk management, so deny any weakness in their approach. Yet, in recent years, most executives have been no better at handling risk that the man or woman in the street—often considerably worse. Isn’t it time to acknowledge this weakness in conventional management attitudes and put a stop to it?
Technorati Tags: risk, choice, managing risk, making decisions, emotional decisions, management myths


I’m beginning to feel about motivation as I do about communication. Why are there so many books and articles about it? If one or two of them contained all you needed to do it well, the others would be unnecessary. It’s more likely that motivation has been hyped, like communication, because it’s a vague topic with broadly positive connotations—an ideal area for offerings from consultants, authors, publishers, and bloggers.
I thought it would be a good idea to review some of the basics of management—topics that we take for granted because they are so familiar to us, or because we assume the last word on them has been spoken and there is nothing more to be said. Motivation is on my list, as is communication, but I am going to start with the topic of working relationships between bosses and their subordinates.
Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, whose mild criticism of the economic policies of George Bush earned him such vitriolic treatment a few years ago, was quoted recently as worrying that economics as a discipline is going backwards—and that economists, as a profession, understood less about the economy than they had a generation before. I think he’s right, and I think that other areas, especially management, have the same problem. Yet I find that a cause for optimism in the slightly longer term. Let me try to explain why.
One of the commonest platitudes of management and career development is the need for clear goals, carefully set down, with marker points and ways to measure of progress. What if this is not true? Maybe it’s simply an assumption, based on nothing more than how some people like to do things.
I know this is a bold statement, that’s why, to demonstrate the essential truth of the proposition, I need to start from the beginning and ask what we mean by supervision in a business environment.


